{
  "title": "The Reversal",
  "source": {
    "publisher": "CDC / National Center for Health Statistics",
    "dataset": "VSRR Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts",
    "id": "xkb8-kh2a",
    "csv": "https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/xkb8-kh2a/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD",
    "page": "https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/drug-overdose-data.htm",
    "cdcRowsUpdatedAt": "2026-10-14T14:06Z",
    "downloaded": "2026-10-22",
    "sha256": "1f94392a13801d82d08e12ae8bd909791f0a67703c7ac52127c5608ea0ea4ab6",
    "rows": 87543,
    "bytes": 15848142
  },
  "firstMonth": "2015-01",
  "dataThrough": "2026-05",
  "priorPeriod": "2025-05",
  "jurisdictions": 53,
  "drugSpecific": 51,
  "noDrugSpecific": [
    "LA",
    "OR"
  ],
  "smallBase": [
    "MT",
    "ND",
    "NE",
    "NH",
    "RI",
    "SD",
    "VT",
    "WY"
  ],
  "smallBaseThreshold": 250,
  "derived": {
    "allBelowPeak": false,
    "belowPeak": 52,
    "risingYoy": [
      "NM",
      "NE",
      "CO",
      "WY",
      "WI",
      "AR"
    ],
    "pctSpecifiedFirst": 80.9,
    "pctSpecifiedLatest": 96.2,
    "heroinFromPeakPct": -89.5,
    "heroinPeakYm": "2017-06",
    "heroinPeak": 16288,
    "heroinLatest": 1714,
    "synthFromPeakPct": -55.9,
    "synthPeakYm": "2023-07"
  },
  "checks": [
    {
      "check": "One row per jurisdiction, indicator and month",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "0 duplicate keys in 87,543 rows"
    },
    {
      "check": "Single period type",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "every row is a 12-month-ending count"
    },
    {
      "check": "Complete monthly grid for overdose totals",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "54 jurisdictions incl. US x 137 months (2015-01 to 2026-05), no gaps"
    },
    {
      "check": "Predicted count present for every overdose total",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "0 missing of 7,398"
    },
    {
      "check": "U.S. reported total equals the sum of its 51 jurisdictions",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "50 states + DC + NYC, excl. Puerto Rico; max monthly difference 0 deaths"
    },
    {
      "check": "Predicted totals: jurisdictions vs. U.S. model",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "NCHS models each level separately; max divergence 0.56% (tolerance 1.5%)"
    },
    {
      "check": "No drug class exceeds total overdose deaths",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "0 violations across 6 classes"
    },
    {
      "check": "Overdose deaths never exceed all-cause deaths",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "0 violations, 0 missing all-cause counts in 7,398 rows"
    },
    {
      "check": "U.S. peak sits on the delay-adjusted series",
      "pass": true,
      "detail": "peak 2023-08 at 112,418 predicted deaths"
    }
  ]
}